NOAA released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook in May forecasting below-normal activity — 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Colorado State University has since updated its own forecast downward as well, now calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Both are well below the 30-year averages of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
The primary driver is a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific, which increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin and disrupts the conditions storms need to organize and intensify. The forecasts are credible, the science is sound, and the outlook is genuinely encouraging.
It is also, as forecasters from every institution are careful to point out, not a landfall forecast. NOAA puts it directly: one storm reaching a populated coastline is sufficient to make any season consequential, regardless of the total count.
What a Below-Normal Season Actually Means
El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane development by increasing wind shear — disrupting the vertical structure that allows tropical systems to organize into named storms. When shear is high, developing systems often weaken before they can intensify. That’s the mechanism behind this year’s quieter forecast.
What the forecast does not address is where any of the storms that do develop will track. A below-normal season still produces storms. A storm that develops in the western Atlantic in September and moves northward along the South Carolina coast contributes one name to the season total and potentially days of outages to Horry County — regardless of how quiet the rest of the basin is.
AccuWeather’s forecast makes the regional exposure explicit: despite the below-normal outlook overall, the Carolinas coastline faces higher-than-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026. That’s not a contradiction — it reflects the geographic reality that the Grand Strand sits in the direct path of systems tracking northward from the Gulf and western Atlantic, irrespective of basin-wide activity levels.
The 2023 Reference Point
The 2023 season is worth understanding in this context. El Niño was emerging in 2023 — the same pattern shaping this year’s outlook — and the seasonal forecasts reflected reduced expectations. The 2023 season produced 20 named storms, the most active in years, because unusually warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures offset El Niño’s suppressive effect.
Atlantic waters remain warm in 2026, though not at the extreme levels of 2023. CSU’s updated June forecast accounts for this — warm water gives developing storms more energy once they form, even when overall development is suppressed. The forecasters characterize the net effect as below-average but note that warm Atlantic temperatures reduce confidence in how quiet the season will ultimately be.
The 2026 season is meaningfully different from 2023 in important ways. But 2023 is a standing reminder that seasonal outlooks carry real uncertainty, and that the relationship between a national forecast and any specific community’s exposure is not straightforward.
Why Horry County Can’t Bank on a Quiet Season
Seasonal hurricane forecasts describe activity across the entire Atlantic basin — the ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf. Horry County’s exposure is a function of storm tracks, not storm counts, and the South Carolina coast is geographically positioned to intercept systems that move north along the Eastern Seaboard at any point in a season.
Storms that develop in the Gulf and curve northward affect the Grand Strand. Systems that stall off the Carolina coast produce flooding and wind without making landfall. Nor’easters in the fall generate outages that have nothing to do with tropical activity at all.
At the same time, Horry County’s grid is in a transition period that makes any outage more consequential than it was a decade ago. The Grainger generating station near Conway closed in 2012. The Winyah Generating Station — one of the primary sources currently supplying the region — is scheduled for retirement in 2028. Power now travels to Horry County over longer transmission paths with more points of potential failure. Santee Cooper is actively rebuilding transmission infrastructure in Marion and Horry counties to address the load and transition, but that work runs through the end of the decade. The December 2022 rolling blackouts — implemented to prevent a wider grid failure during an extreme cold event — demonstrated that the grid can be stressed by factors beyond storm damage alone. For the full picture, see our post on Horry County’s power grid.
A below-normal season is welcome. It doesn’t change the underlying exposure.
What Preparation Looks Like in a Quiet Year
The case for standby power in Horry County doesn’t depend on an active forecast. It rests on the straightforward reality that one storm is sufficient, that the season runs through November regardless of how June looks, and that installation lead times don’t compress because the outlook is favorable.
A quiet forecast is actually the better environment in which to act. Scheduling is easier, installation timelines are more predictable, and there’s no competition for contractor availability that appears once a storm is named. For homeowners with a generator already in place, pre-season service confirms the system is ready for whatever the season produces.
Our hurricane preparedness checklist covers both situations — what to confirm if you have a system and what to consider if you don’t. It’s a practical reference regardless of what the forecast is calling for.
Ready to Talk Through Your Options?
Contact Cooper Electrical Services for a straightforward assessment of your home’s standby power needs. We’ll explain what a system involves and what it costs to maintain.
Call 843-945-1627 or use our contact form.
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